The "Russia is winning" crowd are still engaged in an effort of "goal-post moving."
The 2022 invasion was meant as a knockout blow—a swift advance to the capital and seizure of the entire country. The claims of "de-Nazification" and the caravan-like invasion make no sense otherwise.
Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin—they didn't agree on much, but they all agreed that the Russian empire cannot exist without holding Ukraine. The reasons for this are largely geographic. Russia is currently unable to hold the territories that it officially annexed as the invasion began. Holding all of Ukraine is a pipe dream.
Many (probably most) analysts flatly stated that Ukraine would not stand a chance in the spring of 2022. Moreover, Putin assumed that—much as with the incursion into Georgia and the seizure of Crimea—the West would yap for a few months and then forget it ever happened. None of these things happened, and Russia finds itself in a drawn-out slog.
NATO expanded, including to Finland, which is extremely important to Russia's defense. Russia's economic relations with Europe have been drastically, perhaps indelibly severed. Yes, Washington has tragically slow-rolled materiel; that said, Washington and NATO have proven that they are willing to push the limit—risk direct confrontation in order to slow Russian expansion.
Estimates of losses in the Soviet Union's Afghanistan campaign are in the range of 50,000. Russia has easily lost that many—likely twice or even three times that amount. Afghanistan was the catalyst (maybe the immediate cause) of the collapse of the USSR. The "special military operation" has been worse. And the losses take place in the context of collapsing demographics and fertility.
People might "fear" Russia, in the way that one's fears a drunken homeless man, but no one in their right mind respects the Russian military, which resorts to "meat wave" attacks and seeks backup from North Korea. These are tactics with diminishing returns. Overall, they are just embarrassing.
Ukraine has fought bravely and effectively. Many will die, but they will be remembered. For Russia, the war can only been seen as a disaster. The "Russia is winning" crowd want you to believe that a) Russia didn't start the war and b) the past three years prove that NATO can't destroy Russia. I remember a lot of "tough talk" from the alternative media about the brilliance of Bashar al-Assad—"He'll outlast them all," they said. Putin will likely have a similar fate.